..and so the clown circus for the 2016 election begins

[Pharcellus]

Even after Trump blustered his way through the debate and insulted and berated the moderators for asking him "tough" questions, he's still polling far in the lead.

Just goes to show how the Republican base is so far out of touch with reality.

The thought of any of these jackasses, yukyuks, and yokels getting into the oval office is enough to give steely-eyed centrist moderates pause.

[tantalyr]

Musings from a bit right of center debate viewer . . .

No pun intended but the elephant in the room is certainly Trump. To me, he came off as, well, snarky. And evasive. Never once did he state any concrete policy or plan for the future of America. Upon reflection, he reminds me of the rise of Adolf Hitler. Just like Hitler, Trump focuses his attention (and appeal) to the basest instincts of his audience. He excoriates not only the government (likely well-deserved) but races (i.e. Latinos) and women (I've rarely seen or heard a more blatant misogynist). Trump absolutely scares me.

Jeb may be smart, but he's terribly unexciting. Not to mention rather rote in his responses to questions.

Rubio, though thoughtful, didn't inspire me either.

Walker held his own in the debate, but he wasn't terribly charismatic at doing so.

I was, however, impressed by three candidates: (1) Carly Fiorina--smart, blunt, terrific business and economy knowledge, and quick on her feet, though her divorce from Hewlett Packard will haunt her candidacy; (2) John Kasich--moderate and thoughtful--I particularly liked his response to the gay marriage question; and (3) Ben Carson--very, very smart and pragmatic, though his lack of political experience will likely doom his campaign.

Fortunately, I truly believe that Trump really cannot control himself. He says the first thing that comes to whatever passes for his brain and, as a consequence, I do believe that he and his candidacy will implode long before the primary season is done.

If not, and our choice in November 2016 is between Trump and Hillary, I will give even more serious thought to moving to Victoria, Canada--the most beautiful and alluring city outside the U.S. I've ever had the pleasure of visiting.

[Kulamata]

I generally had the same reactions as Tant, with, of course, a few exceptions.
Carson's response to the "intensive interrogation" question ("It's nobody's business how we obtain the information we need"), probably paraphrased inadvertently by me and a similar answer about the need to bomb Iran to stop their nuclear development (on another program I think) was shocking coming from somebody who has taken the Hippocratic Oath. And terrible policy as well.

Carly F. was indeed the sole outstanding candidate on the Junior Varsity team. However, I have despised her since her time at HP. Her tenure there was very extensively reported out here, where HP and "the HP way" were near-revered. She ridiculed and did her best to break a very very successful corporate culture. She took a national resource, and turned it into a commodities manufacturer, while waging bitter war in the boardroom. She sounds good, but is ummm... factually challenged. Arrogant, egocentric. Just ran into this, and the number of gross inaccuracies was startling.
www.vox.com/2015/8/21/9186313/carly-fiorina-climate-wrong The part about CA is correct BTW.

I was particularly taken by the need for a lot of water for solar power --- photo-voltaics, (solar cells, the dominant technology) are being installed in the desert! No water needed! Then there was the wind turbine bird argument, which, as some of you may remember, lit up this forum briefly. The final answer on that, incidentally, turned out that if you consider bird migration paths carefully, you can reduce bird kills to almost zero. And finally "clean coal". Yes, you can take sulfur and such out, but coal is pretty pure carbon, and it burns to make CO2, and that's that. There is no recourse save alchemical transmutation, which has been just over the horizon for 400 years, but any day now...

I was pleasantly surprised by the post-debate press that John Kasich received, since he set off no fireworks, actually used data to support a clear proposal or two, and, by comparison seemed like a boring read. 'Most all policy, no red meat. My clear favorite by far.

[tantalyr]

So VP Biden has decided not to run. That virtually assures Hillary as the eventual Democratic nominee. Her electability is quite another matter . . .

[Kulamata]

Her electability vs. whom? Trump? Carson? Carly's falling fast, not likely to be her. Kasich, IIRC, has dropped out. Jeb! just put his staff on water and gruel. Cruz??

The House is heavily R, but the votes for Reps were 1 or 2 % (2014/2012) thanks to the magic of gerrymandering. I think that R misapprehension of the meaning of that is partly to blame for the R's habitual over-reaching. Presidential elections are somewhat less susceptible to gerrymandering effects, although there's always voter suppression to consider.

Early, (too early really) polls give the impression that Hilary will do all right, especially with good ol' unca Bern nudging her away from the financial sector. Now that the 9th Benghazi investigation is limping to a close, it's possible that, based on the heavily docotored tapes and Carly Fiorina's remarkably vivid imagination, we'll have an attempted Planned Parenthood inquisition. That'll be sure to help any R who runs.

I, myself, would like to see an R-driven investigation into who's responsible for our plummeting into a New Ice Age.

Just trying to be helpful.

[tantalyr]

By questioning Hillary's electability, I refer in particular to two specific issues.

An initial caveat: It is far, far too early in the electoral season to place any trust in polling. There are way too many things that could happen between now and the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary--not to mention the completion of all primaries prior to the nominating conventions--to destroy or elevate the popularity of any and all of the candidates in both parties. That said, I do believe that certain trends over the past months are quite enlightening.

The first issue Hillary will have to contend with is the steady drip and fallout from her use of a private email server to conduct State Department business. And that steady drip will not go away in the future. It resonates with Joe Blow Voter because the vast majority of those who are office workers know that if their bosses ever found out they were communicating with clients/customers via the worker's private email services about company business, they would be fired in a heartbeat. Indeed, my rather liberal younger brother, who is and has for over two decades been an FDIC attorney, told me some months ago that although he sometimes receives and sends "confidential"--as distinct from actually "classified"--emails, those emails are always, always sent and received over the FDIC's government server. As my brother emphasized to me, if he ever sent or received any emails dealing with FDIC business over a private email service, he would not only be fired but would likely face criminal charges.

As polls over the past few months have consistently reflected, as a consequence of her use of a private server, not to mention her ever-changing stories and explanations, the majority of the American electorate deem her untrustworthy. And that's not a good thing, Martha.

The second trend easily seen for months in polling--and evidenced as well by the popularity of folks like Trump, Carson and Sanders--is that a very large segment of the American electorate is fed up with the same ol' politicians. That segment wants to "throw the rascals out"--as Texas voters did in 1974 with our then administration and legislature--and try something new: fresh outsiders. Both Hillary and Jeb are and will continue to fall victim to that backlash if only because of their last names (indeed, witness how far Jeb has fallen in Republican polling).

In my view, 2016 is shaping up to be a greater "change election" than 2008 was. It will be a most interesting election cycle to watch.

[amongwareth]

Only thing I can figure is that there has to be some dark-horse candidate to come out of the GOP pool cause the front-runners at the moment don't seem very electable to me. they are all so far right and bat-shit nuts that I can't foresee them capturing the undecideds at the center. Especially with so many of them going out of their way to offend various groups... women, Hispanics, and so on.

On the flip side, I have to say that I was pleasantly surprised to see a REAL proposal that seemed like a decent compromise from Jeb regarding social Security and medicare/medicaid.

For my part, as many could probably guess from past discussions, I'm a fan of Bernie.

[Pharcellus]

Oct 27, 2015 14:59:31 GMT tantalyr said:

By questioning Hillary's electability, I refer in particular to two specific issues.

An initial caveat: It is far, far too early in the electoral season to place any trust in polling. There are way too many things that could happen between now and the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary--not to mention the completion of all primaries prior to the nominating conventions--to destroy or elevate the popularity of any and all of the candidates in both parties.

That doesn't jive with your previous statement about her nomination being "virtually assured" just because Biden dropped out.

I think that betrays a rather (fuck it, HEAVILY) slanted view of things. It also ignores a mountain of important facts and information about the race.

That said, I do believe that certain trends over the past months are quite enlightening.

The first issue Hillary will have to contend with is the steady drip and fallout from her use of a private email server to conduct State Department business. And that steady drip will not go away in the future.

I am SO FUCKING TIRED of this STUPID political grandstanding BULLSHIT! IT HAS BEEN THREE FUCKING YEARS! If they had ANYTHING on her, they would have already used it. The only steady drip I see is the last drops of any credibility the Republicans ever had, coming from what has become a VERY small tank to begin with. There is no law against her using a private email server for NON-CONFIDENTIAL, NON-CLASSIFIED State Dept business. If there should be, that's a different issue, and it is on Congress' head to PASS such a law, which, I note, is CURRENTLY CONTROLLED BY A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY! Instead of doing, you know, REAL work, REAL legislation, they want to play stupid political grandstanding games, as usual. Even Republican leaders have PUBLICLY admitted that it is all a political sham with its only purpose to hurt her politically. Could have knocked me over with a feather when I heard truth come out of Kevin McCarthy's mouth. Obviously a moment of temporary insanity on the part of a Republican. Facts! Reality! WHAT IS THIS SORCERY?!?!?! Surprised he didn't immediately run to the Congressional Chaplain's office and request exorcism for demonic possession or some shit. Hell, he might've won Speakership after that!

It resonates with Joe Blow Voter because the vast majority of those who are office workers know that if their bosses ever found out they were communicating with clients/customers via the worker's private email services about company business, they would be fired in a heartbeat. Indeed, my rather liberal younger brother, who is and has for over two decades been an FDIC attorney, told me some months ago that although he sometimes receives and sends "confidential"--as distinct from actually "classified"--emails, those emails are always, always sent and received over the FDIC's government server. As my brother emphasized to me, if he ever sent or received any emails dealing with FDIC business over a private email service, he would not only be fired but would likely face criminal charges.

No it fucking doesn't. Haven't you SEEN the polling of "Joe Blow Voter" on the issue? Even a large percentage of REPUBLICANS think it is a farce. The majority of businesses don't care if you use third-party email services, even for non-confidential company business; in fact, most of them do anyway because they can't afford to run their own email server(s). You're also comparing apples to hand grenades with that anecdote about your brother. The vast majority of "Joe Blow Voters" don't have or need that level of accountability in email handling, not to mention the fact that you're also talking specifically about CONFIDENTIAL communications anyway. Not even the same thing.

As polls over the past few months have consistently reflected, as a consequence of her use of a private server, not to mention her ever-changing stories and explanations, the majority of the American electorate deem her untrustworthy. And that's not a good thing, Martha.

No, most polls have been steadily going in her favor and against the Republican political narrative. America is tired of hearing about her "damn emails", as Bernie so eloquently put it. The latest Gowdy Doody show didn't impress anyone. 11 hours of testimony, and the best those morons could come up with when asked what they learned was "Iunno, we'll have to check the transcripts to see what we can find out (aka stretch and distort beyond rationality)". No, Tant, America is sick and fed up with this constant idiocy and waste of OUR money, and the polls are reflecting a growing wakefulness to these stupid political shenanigans. That is ALL they are. There is NO substance to them whatsoever, despite what the Faux News moron brigade thinks (though, they KNOW it is a farce, but they make hay on this kind of farce, so they have no reason to call it out).

..and don't take any of this as support for Hillary. I can't stand her AT ALL. She's as bad as the rest of them, but at least *I* can dislike her on issues of substance, rather than trying to constantly patch up a zombified fantasy smear campaign. Like the fact that she *IS* the establishment. She won't regulate the banks, she will continue to support money in politics, she will keep our stupid middle east wars, start more, and support Saudi Arabia, which is ultimately the worst actor in all the Middle East, and the "man behind the curtain" for terrorism there AND everywhere else, she will continue the domestic spying and surveillance, she will keep the stupid "War on Drugs", she'll acquiesce to gutting the social safety net even more (just like Obama, btw), et cetera ad nauseum. She is more center-right than anything else. That's why Sanders seems to be such a radical. He's ACTUALLY a REAL left-wing politician. Even frickin' Eisenhower was more left than Hillary. IKE!

The second trend easily seen for months in polling--and evidenced as well by the popularity of folks like Trump, Carson and Sanders--is that a very large segment of the American electorate is fed up with the same ol' politicians. That segment wants to "throw the rascals out"--as Texas voters did in 1974 with our then administration and legislature--and try something new: fresh outsiders. Both Hillary and Jeb are and will continue to fall victim to that backlash if only because of their last names (indeed, witness how far Jeb has fallen in Republican polling).

That I can agree with. I've been fed up with establishment politicians for two decades. The problem is the system only gives us establishment choices because it *IS* the establishment. However, that is changing. With the movements to get an amendment to get money out of politics gaining momentum, and anti-establishment candidates growing and leading in the polls, I think this time there's a real shot at getting some of that "new blood" into office. The only choice is between someone who is considerate, intelligent, and rational (Sanders) and someone who panders to the lowest common denominator (because that's where they come from - Trump, Carson).

In my view, 2016 is shaping up to be a greater "change election" than 2008 was. It will be a most interesting election cycle to watch.

Oh, definitely. It is going to be one where either I will either find some hope in humanity and feel proud to be an American, or one which I will totally write this country off as a lost cause / failed experiment. Ultimately, not because of the politicians, but because the electorate has either finally woken up to the stupid shit that's going on that their voting has enabled all these years, or because they, collectively, are too stupid to deserve better than to lose everything they care about to a bunch of plutocrats and other scummy con artists (aka lobbyists and politicians).

[Pharcellus]

I watched the Democratic debate, and there were really only two candidates: Sanders and Clinton. O'Malley was a fixture, Chafee was pathetic and pitiful, and No_Neck_Guy was psychotic.

I think this is pretty much a horse race between Sanders and Clinton on the Democratic side. I also think Sanders has a serious chance of winning it. He's the first politician I have ever considered donating money to directly, and will once finances settle from quarterly project completion. Hillary just can't compete. She's just saying whatever she thinks people want to hear; she doesn't mean ANY of it. Sanders, on the other hand, is actually sincere. The things he is saying, pretty much he ALWAYS has said, and believed in. He's credible, apparently honest, and he is definitely passionate. I think that rings true for a lot of voters on all sides.

Personally, I would even be happy with Sanders as President and Clinton as Vice-President, but I still would rather have someone like Elizabeth Warren as VP with Sanders, lest Hillary arrange a "Vince Fostering" for Bernie (yeah, I know it is a stupid conspiracy nut theory -- just the thought of her becoming president, though.. ugh).

As for last night's debate, I only watched summaries and outtakes from it, but it didn't appear to break any new ground. The Republican clown circus just enters the next act, is all. Trump plays Republican Alpha Male, and the crowd goes wild. "OOO! OOO!" *pounds chest* *cheers and applause* -- pretty much the whole night. Jeb got owned by Rubio, blithely stepping into a bear trap that Rubio had well-prepared for ahead of time. It almost looked scripted, as it was so obvious and pathetic that Jeb couldn't recover. Carson just rode on Trump's coattails and blathered on about the same stupid talking point positions he's always had in his laid-back monotone, minus some of the crazy shit he says between debates. The rest of the "me toos!" were pathetic and uninspiring. I think most of them are going to be gone in the next month or two. Though, as pathetic as Jeb is, he'll probably linger on through to the end, just because, you know, "Bush".

[Pharcellus]

Oh, and I am also a bit peeved at the DNC for not inviting Lessig. The man is brilliant and would have added a lot to the debate, despite being a strange "single issue" candidate. I don't think he has any chance of becoming President, as I don't see the point of being President for one purpose. You can't neglect all other priorities and tasks waiting on your single issue to pass. Even still, his arguments and candor would lead more people to question the establishment and their support of it, which is sorely needed no matter what.