Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 STILL missing?

[Pharcellus]

WTF?

How does an airplane that large disappear like this in this age of surveillance?

I mean, are we back to the Bermuda Triangle and aliens again?

Something I saw which I am going "PURSUE THIS LEAD!!" is that the family members have been calling their loved ones who were on the flight, and the cell phones are acting like they are still on, versus immediately going to voicemail. My first thought is "TRACK DOWN THE OUTGOING CELL TOWER!". They CAN do this. They can see which cell tower is reporting back to the network the location of the SIM card so calls can be routed to it for that account. That's how the cellular network works. Even GSM phones work in a similar fashion.. a constellation of satellites is flying overhead and handing off as different ones rise and set on the horizon. The phones talk to the satellites to let them know "hey, I am here, route calls to me". The satellites can be queried about the time in which signals from the phones are received, and from the ephemeris data of each satellite, they can pin down the location.

Of course, phones are likely going to run out of battery power sooner than later, so they should have been on this day 1, if it was an actual lead.

The 24-hour news cycle has been going into overdrive over this story. Terrorists, fake passports, etc etc. It's almost like a feeding frenzy.

[kirinir]

I don't understand how planes are allowed to turn off their trackers. I would think that if it's > 10 ft off the ground it should automatically turn on and remain on until < 10 ft again. Why in the world they are allowed to turn it on/off for commercial flights is mind boggling to me.

[FrithRae]

I think we underestimate how vast the ocean really is, conceptually (ESP. the Pacific), and how fast things can go down.

EVEN in this day and age with the survellience tech and satellites...shit still gets lost at sea without a trace/never finding much.

If they landed somewhere on a physical beach/island whatever I think they would have been found at this point..but that goes off of no experience at all just thinking "the physical places are a lot less numerous around there and you'd at least see burn marks or something ..."

Which only leaves dropping/landing/exploding into the sea. And if any of the above occurred in a situation where the plane sank in a matter of a minute or so... well... until something washes up somewhere we may never have any more evidence or clues.

And you're right - who knows what we're hearing is "actual evidence" or just "we heard this on twitter evidence" that they only differentiate by saying (MAYBE?! saying at that..) "unconfirmed reports..."

As yes Phar, I would imagine that cellphone signals, towers, GPS, satellites... they aren't swimming around in wooden boats out there with the only people in charge being a local from the pacific islands there. I guess I have *enough* faith in people to think someone has already thought, and is looking into... that. IF, as you said, it is indeed true that cell phones are just ringing and ringing and then going to voicemail. Implying that something is on the receiving end.... receiving. IF that is true, I imagine they are already going down that angle or already did...immediately. *shrugs*  Course even if I don't use my iphone, which has great battery charge hold even a year later -  it would die in 4 days so...  (things that make you go...hrmm...).. where they are at they are at least roaming on whatever phone might still be powered. I have a hard time believing a phone would be roaming (assuing it would even get a signal over the ocean.. cuz on cruise ships no, just a few hundred yards from shore you can't get jack for signal...)  for more than a day or two before dying even if you never made a call or used it...

Whether terrorists blew it into a million pieces before everything fell and sank in the ocean... who knows. Its possible. Its also possible it just suffered some system wide random failure and just crashed and split up (or just crashed) killing everyone in the landing so that everything, and everyone, sinks or gets eaten within a couple of hours...

But unless someone's floating around with a bit of suitcase or a raft and the currents have taken them places where people arent' looking yet (happens all the time with ocean rescue..) - no.. we may never find a single other piece of evidence to tell us what happened.

[FrithRae]

Mar 14, 2014 9:23:18 GMT kirinir said:

I don't understand how planes are allowed to turn off their trackers. I would think that if it's > 10 ft off the ground it should automatically turn on and remain on until < 10 ft again. Why in the world they are allowed to turn it on/off for commercial flights is mind boggling to me.

Well IMO its also a HUGE importance to point out...

This was a Malaysian airline.

This isn't Delta. This isn't American Rules and Standards. Other country's airliners have other rules. And having flown around Russia in Russian "Aeroflop's", I can tell you that it makes a huge difference between American Standardized Rules, Regs, and Aircraft requirements (and age of those aircraft..) and other countries' (Esp. those not 1st world, Euro-American ruled..).

Their training. Their equipment. The age of that equipment. Their safety precautions. Their safety equipment. Their fail safes...etc.etc.etc. Are all not necessarily "up to snuff" so to speak of what you'd find from a company operating majorly in the US like Delta or Southwest.

If someone didn't do this on purpose, my instinct is to think that THIS difference of quality, so to speak, is going to be the real reason this tragedy happened.

[Pharcellus]

The plane is a Boeing 777-200; it's a fairly new plane, so the equipment age of the plane shouldn't have been an issue.

If it blew up in mid-air, there still would be a floating debris field of some kind. It could have ditched into the ocean whole and sank whole, but that would be a rare case. Most ditchings cause some amount of break-up and debris.

Plane and ship disappearances like this don't really happen as often anymore as you would think.

[FrithRae]

Welp...this is an early just appeared report...

But you got it Phar...and so did they. Looking at Terrorists, and Terrorists who knew how to fly planes. And bouncing satellite signals across the field to see when the last cellphone signal got sent... and all sorts of things here...

news.yahoo.com/malaysian-official-says-missing-plane-hijacked-051507084.html

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) — A Malaysian investigation into the missing flight 370 has concluded that one or more people with flying experience switched off communications devices and deliberately steered the airliner off-course, a Malaysian government official involved in the investigation said Saturday.

The official called the disappearance a hijacking, though he said no motive has been established and no demands have been made known. It's not yet clear where the plane ended up, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief the media.

The official said a deliberate takeover of the plane was no longer a theory. "It is conclusive," he said, indicating that investigators were ruling out mechanical failure or pilot error in the disappearance.

He said evidence that led to the conclusion were signs that the plane's communications were switched off deliberately, data about the flight path and indications the plane was steered in a way to avoid detection by radar.

bunch of stuff...

Another U.S. official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said investigators looking for the plane have run out of clues except for a type of satellite data that has never been used before to find a missing plane, and is very inexact.

The data consists of attempts by an Inmarsat satellite to identify a broad area where the plane might be in case a messaging system aboard the plane should need to connect with the satellite, said the official. The official compared the location attempts, called a "handshake," to someone driving around with their cellphone not in use. As the phone from passes from the range of one cellphone tower to another, the towers note that the phone is in range in case messages need to be sent.

Good article overall, those are just the salient major points.

[kirinir]

Mar 14, 2014 18:08:18 GMT FrithRae said:

This isn't Delta. This isn't American Rules and Standards. Other country's airliners have other rules. And having flown around Russia in Russian "Aeroflop's", I can tell you that it makes a huge difference between American Standardized Rules, Regs, and Aircraft requirements (and age of those aircraft..) and other countries' (Esp. those not 1st world, Euro-American ruled..).

Transponders are in planes and they can be turned on/off, doesn't matter if it's a Malaysian, European or American plane. I would think that some aviation authority needs to mandate that they are on and cannot be turned off if they are carrying passengers. They are the system that sends out "I'm plane xxx and here's where I am, how fast, etc". I'm just stunned that they allow pilots an option to turn the damn thing off.

IF you are flying into airspace that you're not supposed to be in then, umm you'd better have a damn good reason for going there....

[FrithRae]

Well as is evident by what I linked before you responded...

It is...thought..the terrorists turned it off (not the pilot..)

Though I do agree that... that shouldn't even be possible in the first place.

[FrithRae]

Thoughtful article about the idea that no, this was not deliberate...at all...

news.yahoo.com/pilots-tried-save-mh370-193000845--politics.html

Since we had the thread here just wanted to post it.

And because of the rising Stink about the Malasian officials and the information they are sharing, or not sharing - and their statements that other people think are premature. At least what is moving through the news *today*.

Its sad regardless. I figured there was no way this plane landed safe enough for survivors on the ground. This isn't LOST - planes falling out of the sky that break up and crash into water/islands don't leave dozens of survivors. Just sad...

[tantalyr]

We have just passed the one-year anniversary of the disappearance of the Malaysian aircraft and still not even the tiniest indication of its location has been found. Indeed, I just read that in the past year searchers have explored only about 40% of the ocean floor where they think it likely went into the water. I emphasize the word "think" because there are still plausible theories that the aircraft took an entirely different path/arc than into the southern Indian Ocean.

Sadly, I must again reiterate my strong doubts that the wreckage of the aircraft will ever be found in our lifetime.

[Kulamata]

As so often the case, Tant, you're probably right. Given the circumstances around its disappearance, it's unlikely that a mechanical problem was the cause for the disappearance. Given that, changes in reporting flight data more frequently, and changes to make disabling the reporting much more difficult will probably be instituted, and physical evidence is not necessarily needed for that, so there's a less strong incentive to continue searching than is usually the case.  

Read an interesting theory about an isolated long runway (forgotten where) that was within reach. So a hijacking was suggested, landing there at the end. IIRC, satellite photos show a new structure, large enough to conceal the plane.

[tantalyr]

So now it appears that beach cleaners have serendipitously discovered a wing flap which belonged to MH370. On Reunion Island, just SE of Madagascar and some 1,600 miles away from the primary search area. Of course, the flap has been floating in the Indian Ocean for over 16 months now, so I'm not sure that researchers--perhaps by analyzing ocean currents for the past 16 months--will be able to narrow down the rest of the airliner's wreckage. One can only hope.

[tantalyr]

After further research and speaking with scientist friends of mine, I'm afraid my hopes are dashed. It appears that the Indian Ocean currents are the most complicated among the world's oceans, and with the addition of tropical storms and typhoons (along with numerous islands) disrupting those currents, it would be nearly impossible to track the wreckage of MH370 to its crash site.

Let's hope that the barnacles recovered from the wreckage parts might give some clue . . . .

[Pharcellus]

Some forensics may be possible, but I wouldn't count on them finding much of substance to narrow down the search area all that much, at least with any reasonable degree of certainty.

I guess we will just have to accept that, even in this day and age, planes and ships can still be lost without (much of) a trace. I would never have thought it, but some places around the world are just not monitored sufficiently to keep track of all traffic, esp if it (un)intentionally wandered into such an area.